Thursday, May 31, 2012

Enrique Peña Nieto falling; U.S. dollar soaring

PRI candidate hits a new campaign low, exactly 30 days before Mexico votes; meanwhile, "the dollar is in the clouds"

The numbers speak for themselves. EPN must be sweating; he's lost .7 of a percentage point since the Milenio/GEA poll released yesterday. Another Mexico City poll (Reforma) reported today that the PRI candidate is actually at 38%, and Andrés Manuel López Obrador at 34%. With the percentage of error factored in, that's almost a statistical tie.



Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar roared, crushing the peso and peaking at a level not seen since 2009. For the second time in a week the dollar sold for more in Mérida banks than anywhere else in the nation, fetching a three-year high of $14.60 pesos. On the buyer's market, a dollar could be exchanged for over $14 pesos almost everywhere in the country. By the time this chart was published today, it was stale. Mexico's central bank, Banxico, is worried, but there's nothing to be done - ni modo, as people say in this country. Europe's economic mess and the imminent disaster facing Greece are pushing U.S. money into the stratosphere. It's a good time to have greenbacks parked in the bank.


June 1: The dollar opened at $14.65 pesos in Banamex locations in Mexico City.

U.S. Dollar continues to pound MX Peso: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.mx/2012/05/us-dollar-continues-to-pound-mx-peso.html.

European economic woes: Eurozone (17 key nations) unemployment reached 11% in April. European Union (27 member nations) unemployment is at 10.3%. Unemployment in Spain is 24.3%; in Greece it's about 22%. Those factors will keep propelling the dollar while indirectly punishing the peso.

España ocupa el centro de la crisis de la eurozona tras la crisis bancaria: http://mexico.cnn.com/mundo/2012/06/07/espana-ocupa-el-centro-de-la-crisis-de-la-eurozona-tras-la-crisis-bancaria.
Euro zone on the brink: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/euro-zone-on-the-brink/2012/06/04/gJQAiUOVDV_story.html?hpid=z1.
Europe’s grim choices: http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/europes-grim-choices/2012/06/03/gJQA17q7BV_story.html.
Spain’s problems put pressure on Europe to accelerate crisis response: http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/spains-problems-add-pressure-on-europes-leaders-to-accelerate-crisis-response/2012/05/29/gJQAP8r4zU_story.html.
At The Edge Of The Precipice: http://mexicogulfreporter-supplement.blogspot.mx/2011/11/at-edge-of-precipice.html.

Is López Obrador responsible for the peso's crash?
Some allege that López Obrador's improving chances of becoming Mexico's next president are causing the peso to nosedive. The leftist candidate is an advocate for the poor and socially marginalized, and he's been accused of being anti-business and a Robin Hood in disguise. López Obrador "hace caer el peso": http://yucatan.com.mx/economia/lopez-obrador-hace-caer-al-peso. (PRD candidate Andrés López Obrador tells supporters, he's no Robin Hood: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.mx/2011/12/prd-candidate-andres-lopez-obrador.html.)

Mexican presidential race tightens (May 30): http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.mx/2012/05/mexican-presidential-race-tightens.html.
López Obrador hits personal best in polls (May 25): http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.mx/2012/05/lopez-obrador-hits-personal-best-in.html.

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